黑河中游土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力的定量分析

以1981-2005年间近25年数据为基础,定量分析了绿洲区土地利用/覆盖变化的社会经济与自然驱动力。文中对指标进行了相关分析、主成分分析和回归分析,对社会经济和自然驱动力的10个指标综合分析和对比,确定绿洲区土地利用/覆盖变化的主要驱动因子,阐明干旱区绿洲土地利用/覆盖变化的驱动机制。结果表明:黑河中游土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力的第一主成分、第二主成分和第三主成分的贡献率分别为50.501%、17.819%和17.480%,反映出绿洲土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力因子的综合性与复杂性,其中,社会经济驱动力在黑河中游LUCC中起到主导作用,自然驱动力相对来说作用较小。

Analysis Driving Forces of LUCC in Heihe Middle Reaches

Based on the24 years' data between 1981 and 2005,this text analyzes the socio-economic and natural driving forces of LUCC in oasis region.In the text,the analyses about correlation,main component and regress are made to all kinds of indexes,and synthetical analyses and contrast are made to the 11 indexes of the socio-economic and natural driving forces,and the main driving factors of LUCC of the oasis region are confirmed,and the driving mechanisms of LUCC of the oasis in the arid region are illustrated.The result indicates that: the contributive rate of the first and second and third main components of LUCC driving forces in this region are50.501% and 17.819%and 17.480% respectively.That reflects the synthesis and complexity of the driving forcing factors of LUCC in the oasis region.The socio-economic driving forces place a dominant role in the LUCC of the oasis region and the function of the natural driving forces is relatively small.