澜沧江流域1951—2008年气候变化和2010—2099年不同情景下模式预估结果分析

利用澜沧江流域1951—2008年的降水和气温观测资料以及多模式集成的21世纪(2010—2099年)不同情景下(SRES A1B、SRES A2和SRES B1)气候变化模拟试验的预估结果,分析了该流域过去58年降水和气温的变化,并预估了未来90年的气候变化趋势。结果表明,在全球增暖的大背景下,过去58年澜沧江流域的年降水量下降了46.4mm,气温有所上升,升温率达到了0.15℃/10a。在未来的90年,无论在哪种排放情景下,降水都表现为明显的上升趋势,而且相对于过去58年的结果,3种不同情景下降水的年代际变率都有所增加,其中A2情景值最大,B1情景值最小。年平均气温无论是在过去的58年还是在未来的90年都以明显的上升趋势为主,3种情景下气温的升温率远远超过过去58的结果。

Observed(1951-2008)and Projected(2010-2099)Climate Change in the Lancang River Basin

Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data from 1951 to 2008 and the projected data from 2010 to 2099 by the multi-model ensemble under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in the 21st century, we analyzed the annual and seasonal changes of precipitation and temperature in the past 58 years, and estimated the climatic tendencies in the next 90 years. The results show that the annual precipitation decreased by 46.4 mm in the past 58 years, which wasn't statistically significant. The precipitation under each scenario has an obvious increasing tendency in the next 90 years. The increasing rates of precipitations under SRES A1B, A2 and B1 are all larger than that in the past 58 years. We also find whether in the past 58 years and in the next 90 years under each scenario, annual mean temperature is increasing and it is statistically significant.