| 基于所有可能回归的最优气候预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 施能,曹鸿兴.基于所有可能回归的最优气候预测模型[J].南京气象学院学报,1992,15(4):459-466. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施能 曹鸿兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院
(施能)，中国气象科学研究院(曹鸿兴) |
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| 基金项目： | 长江、黄河流域旱涝成因与预测研究课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 气候 预测 模型 最佳化 逐步回归 |
THE OPTIMUM CLIMATE FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON ALL POSSIBLE REGRESSIONS |
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| Shi Neng,Cao Hongxing Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science.THE OPTIMUM CLIMATE FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON ALL POSSIBLE REGRESSIONS[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,1992,15(4):459-466. |
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| Authors: | Shi Neng Cao Hongxing Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science |
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| Institution: | Shi Neng;Cao Hongxing Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science |
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| Abstract: | Problems of establishing the optimum regression forecasting model are ex-amined. In general,the optimum forecasting model is not obtainable by stepwise regres-sion. By calculation of all possible regressions with Mallows' C_p statistic,average predic-tion mean square error(S_p) and prediction sum of squares (PRESS),the optimum fore-casting model can be obtained. In this study,the methods and steps for choosing the op-timum forecasting model are proposed. Some examples are also given. |
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| Keywords: | the optimum model climati prediction stepwise regression |
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