The study of the radiation characteristics and propagation of seismic waves in the North Caucasus by modeling the accelerograms of the recorded earthquakes

For evaluating the parameters of the vibrations of the Earth’s surface in the case of strong earthquakes, which are possible in the future, the regular patterns of the emission and propagation of seismic waves in the North Caucasus regions are investigated. The regional parameters of emission and propagation of seismic waves are evaluated by solution of the inverse problems of stochastic modeling of the accelerograms of the earthquakes, recorded by the seismic station in Sochi. The horizontal components of the strongest earthquakes (M _w ～ 3.9?5.6), that occurred in 2002–2006 within a radius of ～300 km from the seismic station, with source depths up to 60 km are modeled. For calculations of accelerograms, estimates of the quality are used, obtained earlier for this region in the form: Q(f) ～ 80 ～ f ^0.9. The parameter settings are carried out, which determine the shapes of the source spectra, the amplification of the seismic waves in the Earth’s crust, the weakening of the waves at high frequencies (κ), the parameters that determine the shape and duration of accelerograms, etc. Sufficiently good agreement of the calculated and recorded accelerograms is obtained, the regional characteristics of emission and propagation of seismic waves, which can be used for prediction of the parameters of strong motions in the North Caucasus, are evaluated; however, in the future these characteristics should be studied in more detail.