国际贸易空间格局特征及其驱动因素

本文回顾了全球化与国际贸易的相关研究， 使用2002 年103 个国家的商品出口贸易数 据， 通过主成分分析法和首位联系分析， 对国际贸易空间格局， 尤其是国际贸易流向与贸易组团 进行了研究。着重指出了国际商品贸易体系中的等级结构和核心国家， 分析了区域性贸易组团形 成的驱动因素。研究发现美国和欧盟是第一级贸易中心， 是世界性核心； 中国和日本是第二级中 心， 是世界性贸易核心的候补者； 俄罗斯联邦、韩国、印度、巴西、新加坡、沙特等则为第三级的区 域性贸易核心。贸易组团的组成反映了地理、文化、经济、政治等诸多因素的影响。在大中华地区 表现为以中国大陆、中国香港特区为核心的双星体系， 香港特区在中国国际贸易中仍起重要的中 转作用。

The Study on Pattern of International Tr ade Geogr aphy

This study reviews the related researches about the international trade flow and globalization. With the main merchandise trade data of one hundred and three countries in year 2002, the paper researches on global and regional patterns of international trade flow and clusters with principal components analysis and primary export destiny analysis. In addition, the hierarchy of multi-layers, including core nations and trade clusters, is specially pointed out. The first-class cores are United States and Europe Union; the second-class cores are China and Japan; and the third-class cores include Russian, Korea, India, Brazil, Singapore and Saudi Arabia. The compositions of trade clusters represent the effects of several factors, such as geography, culture, economy and politics. The trade system of China Bloc is a classical system of double stars with two cores: China mainland and China Hongkong. China Hongkong plays a quite important transfer role in the trade network of China. China Taiwan area doesn't have a corresponding important status with its competitive economic capability. And a few predictions are also given on the trend of world merchandise trade system.