1960―2012年安徽省降水和气温变化特征及其与ENSO的相关性分析

使用安徽省1960―2012年气温与降水资料，采用线性倾向估计法、反距离加权插值法、最小二乘法和相关分析法分析安徽省近53年来气温和降水的时空变化特征及其与ENSO的关系。结果表明：1）近53年来安徽省年降水量和年平均气温分别以0.93 mm/a和0.02℃/a的倾向率呈增加趋势；季节变化表明，夏季和冬季降水量呈明显的增加趋势，而春、秋两季则呈减小趋势；四季气温均有所升高，春季气温增幅最大。2）不同季节降水量的年代际变化特征并不明显，降水主要集中在夏季，约占全年降水量的45.95%；与降水量年代际变化不同，年均温和四季气温的年代际变化呈波动上升趋势。3）降水存在显著的空间差异，夏、冬两季降水量由北向南减小幅度逐渐增大，春季降水量由北向南增加幅度逐渐增大；气温的空间变化并无一定规律，但宿州是四季以及全年增温幅度最大的地区。4）不同时间尺度的降水和气温均与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动均存在一定的相关性，其中3、9和11月的降水与Nino 3.4区海表温度距平以及南方涛动有较为显著的相关性，而在9月，气温受Nino 3.4区海表温度距平和南方涛动影响较显著；Nino 3.4区海表温度距平对年降水量和年均温的影响更明显。5）近53年来，El Nino事件和La Nina事件的出现频数分别为16和15次，La Nina事件对降水的增加的影响强于El Nino事件，而El Nino和La Nina事件对气温的影响均不显著。

Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature Variation and Their Correlation with ENSO in Anhui Province during 1960-2012

Based on the precipitation and air temperature data in Anhui Province during 1960-2012, this paper takes such methods as linearity trend estimation, least square method, inverse distance weighted, and correlation analysis to study spatial and temporal variations of climate and their correlation with ENSO in Anhui during the past 53 years. The results are indicated as follows: 1) The precipitation and air temperature in Anhui were increasing annually, the growth rates were 0.93 mm/a and 0.02℃/a, respectively, the seasonal precipitation showed various trends, the rainfall both in summer and winter was increasing, while that in spring and fall was decreasing; the change of seasonal mean air temperature showed a statistically significant increasing trend, in which the greatest increase of average temperature occurred in spring; 2) The decadal variability of rainfall characteristics was not obvious in different seasons, the precipitation in summer accounted for about 45.95% of the annual; the decadal variability of annual and seasonal temperature was increasing with fluctuation trend, different from the one of precipitation; 3) The temporal and spatial difference of precipitation was obvious, the decrease amplitude of precipitation in summer and winter, and the increase amplitude of precipitation in spring gradually increased from north to south; it was not regular for spatial variation of temperature, but Suzhou was the area where the rising range of the annual and seasonal temperature was the largest; 4) Monthly as well as annual precipitation and temperature in Anhui Province had a certain relevance with the anomaly of sea surface temperature of Nino 3.4 area and southern oscillation, the relationship between the precipitation of March, September and November and the anomaly of sea surface temperature of Nino 3.4 area and southern oscillation was significant, the temperature in September was significantly influenced by the anomaly of sea surface temperature and southern oscillation, and the anomaly of sea surface temperature had even more impact on the annual precipitation and annual average temperature; 5) In the past 53 years, 16 El Nino and 15 La Nina events occurred, the impact of La Nina events on precipitation was more obvious than that of El Nino, but both La Nina and El Nino events had relatively weak influence on temperature.