基于ESDA-GIS的新疆县域经济时空差异研究

区域经济差异历来是国内外学者关注的热点问题。从时空角度出发,本文利用新疆1978-2004年县域人均GDP数据,采用变差系数、ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析方法与GIS技术相结合,对新疆县域经济总体发展差异和局部空间异质性的演变特征进行了实证研究。变差系数分析显示新疆县际经济差异并不沿着"倒U字"型的轨迹变化,1978-2004年县域间的经济差距先减少,而后缓慢扩大。通过新疆各县人均GDP的空间自相关系数(Moran’sI)的计算,我们发现改革开放以来新疆经济发展的空间集聚效应增强,集聚区域间的经济差距不断拉大。对不同年度新疆各县人均GDP的局域空间自相关分析进一步揭示出北疆中、西部、南疆西、北部逐渐形成"HH"和"LL"两种类型空间集聚。实践证明空间分析方法是传统经济差异量度方法的一种有益补充,使我们更加深入理解区域经济的空间格局及其变化规律。

Analyzing the county-level economic spatial-temporal disparities in Xinjiang based on ESDA-GIS

The issue of regional economic disparity has attracted considerable scholarly attentions.Unfortunately the conventional measures of regional economic disparity mask geographical clustering.Based on the social-economic data from 1978 to 2004 in Xinjiang,this paper utilizes coefficient of variation(CV),spatial statistical and GIS techniques to analyze changing county-level spatial-temporal patterns of regional economic disparity in Xinjiang.CVs for inter-county disparity do not exhibit an invert U-shaped pattern from 1978 to 2004 in Xinjiang.It declined in the 1980s,but has risen substantially since 1990.We also compared the temporal change of the spatial autocorrelation in Xinjiang,and found that there is an obviously temporal increase of Moran's I since 1978 to 2004.That is,there is a dramatic increase of Xinjiang per capita GDP's spatial clustering in the last 20 years.This means that the disparity between rich clusters and poor is enlarging in the same periods.Moran's I scatter plots and LISA(Local Indicators of Spatial Association) cluster maps are used to test the local pattern of Xinjiang economic development.The results of local statistic show that the two types of clusters(High-High and Low-Low) are increasing,which means the heterogeneous is increasing too.