面对全球迅速变暖及其后果预测的第四纪研究动向

未来50—100年全球可能迅速变暖。围绕这一问题,第四纪研究出现了一些新动向:第四纪地质时期里是否出现过快速变暖阶段?在这阶段里生态环境怎样变化?有机界对气候快速变化的响应程度如何?在地质时期的高温阶段里生物界的景况怎样?等等,以期借鉴过去预测未来。不过,这里也存在这样一个问题,即“在多大程度上‘过去’是预测未来的钥匙?”

NEW TRENDS OF QUATERNARY RESEARCH RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming from the increase of gases in greenhouse has become a major scientific issue. Results from most recent climatic models suggest that global average surface temperature will increase by 2° to 6℃ the next century. Facing with global greater warming, some projects on Quaternary research would be considered to be the proirity: （1） processes and details of brief paleoclimatic oscillations, such as the Bolling/Allerod——Younger Dryas event; （2） the response of biomasses, especially vegetation, to fast climatic changes, in particular greater warming, among the ages of transition from the last full glaciation to the post glaciation; （3） the paleoecological system of the warmer stages, including the optimum epoch of Holocene, the δ¹⁸O stage 5e, or so.It is possible that much more information and data for checking and improving the climatic models could be obtained from these projects. They might to be an approach to assess global and/or regional warming in future. An interesting result, for instance, from investigation of termination of the Younger Dryas in the North Atlantic region has shown that the brief climate event had been ended abruptly 10 700 years ago, and in less than 20 years the climate in the region turned into a milder and less stormy regime. And meanwhile, a warming of about 7℃ was completed in about 50 years （Dansgaard, W., et al., 1989）. However, there is a topic here for serious consideration——in what extent the past is a key to the future?