20世纪上半叶塔里木河流域夏季干湿的演变特征

利用CRU(Climatic Research Unit)的月Palmer干湿指数资料，研究了1901～1950年塔里木河流域夏季干湿的时空演变特征，结果表明：流域干湿的空间分布为正常或轻微干旱，从西南至东北呈“-+”分布；流域干湿变化的线性趋势从西至东呈“+-+-”分布，整个流域50年变干旱趋势显著，但大部分地区的趋势不显著；变率空间分布为东部正变率和西部负变率；干湿指数在1910之前为正，年际变化较为小，之后，则相反；年代干湿指数值呈年代周期性变化，但干湿等级都为正常。在20世纪0年代后期、10年代中期、30年代初期和40年代初期，流域干湿的年代值与50年均值差异显著。年代线性趋势在20世纪10年代中期至30年代初期，正趋势较多，其余两段时期都为负趋势，年代线性趋势在10年代末期正趋势显著，0年代后期至10年代中期、30年代末期和40年代初负趋势显著。流域变率值在20世纪0年代后期至20年代中期，30年代初期和后期与40年代初期达到显著水平。流域干湿的突变点分别出现在1910年、1919年、1927年和1938年。3.5年和7年是此序列显著周期。本文与之前研究得出的流域干湿总体变化特征相似，而由于数据来源、研究区和研究方法存在不同，两者在具体结果方面存在差异；流域干湿变化与海温变化和大气涛动在不同时期存在显著相关关系。

Evolution Characteristics of Summer Dryness-Wetness in Tarim River Basin During the first Half of 20 Century

The spatiotemporal characteristics of summer dry-wet index in the Tarim River Basin from 1901 to 1950 were studied by using the monthly Palmer dry-wet index of CRU(Climatic Research Unit).The results showed that the spatial distribution of the dry-wet index grads during the 50 years was characterized by normal and light drought, Overall southwest - northeast '' - + '' distribution; The 50-year drought trend throughout the river basin was significant, but not significant in most regions; The spatial distribution of the dry-wet index variability was positive in the east and negative in the west; The dry-wet index was positive and its inter-annual variation was small before the 1910s, while after the 1910s, it was contrary; The decadal dry-wet index varied periodically, while its dry-wet grades were still normal; The different between the decadal dry-wet index and the 50 years mean of dry-wet index was significant in the late 1990s,middle 1910s and early of 1930s and 1940s;The positive decadal trend of dry-wet index between middle 1910s and early 1930s was more than the other period, the trend in the other period was negative, the decadal trend was positive and significant in the late 1910s, while it was negative and significant from the late 1900s to the early 1910s, the late 1930s and early 1940s; The dry-wet index varied significantly from the late 1900s to the middle 1920s, the early and late 1930 and early 1940s; the abrupt change points of dry-wet index appeared at 1910, 1919, 1927 and 1938, respectively; Significant periods of dry and wet index were 3.5 and 7 years; This paper is similar to the overall characteristics of dry and wet watershed changes in the first half of the 20th century, while the two also differ slightly in terms of results due to the differences of data sources, study areas and study methods; There was a significant correlation between dry-wet change and sea surface temperature change and atmospheric oscillation in different periods.