| 河西地区融雪径流的灰色预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 蓝永超,曾群柱.河西地区融雪径流的灰色预测方法[J].冰川冻土,1997,19(2):154-160. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蓝永超 曾群柱 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 地河西地区主要河流３－６月径充特征的研究，以灰色系统理论为依据的ＧＭ（１，１）和ＧＭ（０，Ｎ）两种预测模式，分别应用于祁连山河西地区融雪径流的中长期预测，为基层生产部门的用水决策提供科学依据，并在实际应用中取得了良好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 融雪 径流 灰色预测 河流 |
Grey Prediction Method on Snowmelt Runoff in the Hexi Area |
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| Lan Yongchao and Zeng Qunzhu.Grey Prediction Method on Snowmelt Runoff in the Hexi Area[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,1997,19(2):154-160. |
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| Authors: | Lan Yongchao and Zeng Qunzhu |
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| Abstract: | The Hexi area is an important place of grain production The peroid from March to June when snowmelt runoff occupys a great proportion in stream flow is a high time of irrigation in this area In this paper, two forecast models on the base of GM(0, N ) and GM(1, 1) are presented and they are used for the mid and long- range forecast on snowmelt runoff, which may provide an scientific basis for making rational use of water resources The two forecast models are very accurate in the practical application |
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| Keywords: | the mid and long-range forecast grey system theory snowmelt runoff the high time of irrigation forecast model |
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