拓扑克里格法与普通克里格法在区域洪水频率分析中的比较研究

依据北江(珠江流域支流)流域6个水文测站年最大洪峰流量资料,分别用Top-kriging(拓扑克里格法)和普通克里格法进行区域洪水频率估计。采用均方根误差作为频率分布线型拟合优度指标。运用线性矩法进行单站洪水频率分析,确定10、50、100、1000年一遇设计洪水值。在此基础上,从Topkriging和普通克里格法设计洪水估计不确定性和相对线性矩法单站洪水频率的估计误差两个方面比较Top-kriging和普通克里格法。结果表明:(1)Top-kriging法是更好的线性无偏估计,相比普通克里格法更适合于区域洪水频率估计;(2)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计不确定性明显小于普通克里格法;(3)Top-kriging法设计洪水估计结果更接近线性矩法单站洪水频率分析结果。

Compare Top-kriging and Ordinary Kriging in Area Flood Frequency Analysis

Based on the annual maximum peak flow data from the 6 hydrometry stations in the Beijiang River Basin, Top-kriging and ordinary kriging for regional flood frequency methods were respectively used to estimate area flood frequency. Root mean square error was used as a goodness of fit index of frequency distribution. Linear moment as a single station flood frequency analysis method was used to determine the design flood values of 10-year, 50-year, 100 year, 1000-year. Based on the above-mentioned, Top-kriging and ordinary kriging were compared in two aspects: design flood estimation uncertainty and single station flood frequency estimation error which based on linear moment method. The results show that: (1) Top-kriging is a better linear unbiased estimation, comparing to ordinary kriging method it is more suitable for area flood frequency estimation; (2) Top-kriging method of design flood estimation uncertainty is significantly less than the ordinary kriging; (3) Top-kriging method of design flood estimation is closer to the linear moment method single station flood frequency analysis.