中哈能源消费结构与能源安全关联性对比分析

能源产业作为丝绸之路经济带建设的首推工程,影响丝绸之路经济带建设的整体进程。文章以能源消费结构为切入点,构建能源供应安全和使用安全的指标体系,运用回归方法对比分析了1992年~2013年中哈两国能源消费结构与能源安全的关联性。研究结果表明:两国传统的能源消费结构对能源安全的贡献呈现逐渐下降的趋势;两国能源安全均呈现"波动上升-波动下降"演进特征;两国能源安全形势都较为严峻,能源使用安全产生的环境负面效应凸显并逐渐放大。鉴于此,文章以两国能源合作为基础,从区域一体化层面审视并探究两国能源安全合作的深化路径。

The correlation analysis between energy consumption structure and energy security in China and Kazakhstan

Energy industry, as the first engineering construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, influencing the whole process of its construction. The ar-ticle takes the energy consumption structure as the breakthrough point, lay down the energy supply security and the use safety index system, using the re-gression method to analyze the correlation between the energy consumption structure and the energy security during 1992-2013. The results show a trend of gradual decline the contribution to energy security made by bilateral tra-ditional energy consumption structure; the evolution of bilateral energy secu-rity were characteristiced by rising volatility-volatility decline ; bilateral energy security situation are expected to be more serious, energy use security especially, makes highlighted negative effects on environment and even en-larged gradually. So the article takes the bilateral energy cooperation as the foundation, from the regional integration level, in order to examine and ex-plore the deepening path of the two energy security cooperation.