中国港口时空格局演变及影响因素分析

港口是水路运输的枢纽和重要节点,对区域经济的发展起着重要作用。以我国规模以上港口为研究对象,运用指数分析与齐夫定律对近年来我国港口规模的区域差异、等级规模变化进行分析,通过灰色关联度模型确定影响港口规模的主要因素,结果发现:我国港口吞吐量增长迅速,以外贸运输为主;港口规模的区域差异与规模等级差异逐步缩小,各港口吞吐量呈现位序-规模分布,分形结构由单分形转为双分形,齐夫参数呈下降趋势;不同省级行政单元经济水平对港口规模影响存在差异,分为区域拉动型、外向经济型、腹地中转型和补充导向型。

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and factorial analysis on ports in China

Ports play an important role in transporting system in China, hav-ing significant influence on regional economy development. Indexes analysis and Zipf's law were used to measure the difference of regional and the change of hierarchical size structure in scale of large-capacity ports from 1995 to 2013. The results showed that port throughput in China had been increasing rapidly, and foreign trade exportation is dominant in the development. Theil Index and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index analysis showed that the throughput gap between regional ports decrease, and port primary index analysis indicated that difference of hierarchical size structure had been narrowing. Port throughput have rank-size distribution, and fractal structure had been chang-ing from single fractal to double fractal, Zipf parameter of these ports de-creased. Grey relativity analysis showed that the main factors of port throughput were diverse in different provinces, and these provinces can be di-vided into four styles, including regional pull, extroverted economy, hinter-land transformation and supplementary orientation.