中国明清时期疫病时空分布规律的定量研究

依据《中国三千年气象记录总集》、《中国灾荒史记》、《人类灾难纪典》等文献中有关疫病的史料,从地理学的角度定量探讨中国历史上疫病的高发期——明清时期疫病的时空分布规律,以期为研究传染病与环境变化的关系和传染病的控制提供理论依据。研究发现明清时期疫病的发生越来越频繁,1840年以后,疫病发生的频率和影响范围呈现明显的上升趋势,在1580~1589年、1639~1648年、1813~1822年、1857~1866年分别出现四个高峰。疫病的空间分布呈现出由东部沿海地区向内陆地区递减的规律。从发病范围来看,东中部所有的省市都发生过疫病,北京市、天津市、上海市、海南省、福建省、安徽省、江西省、山东省和浙江省发病县数达80%以上。从发病年数来看,黄河和长江中下游地区疫病的发生频率明显高于其他地区。整体上看,华北地区、江浙地区、福建省等东部沿海地区和海南省年均发病县数比较高,表明这些区域疫病的发生频率高,影响范围广。

Temporal-spatial distribution of epidemics in Ming and Qing dynasties (1368-1911A. D.)in China

Human health is affected by global environmental change(GEC). The distribution and transmission of epidemics in history could be rebuilt to reved the relationship between health and GEC from the past. This study used the collected data of epidemics in the Ming and Qing periods, when China was seriously influenced by epidemics, to set up some indicators to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial distribution of epidemics by GIS and geo-statistics methods. The results are as follows: (1) The indicators of "Number of Incident Years of Epidemics in 10 Years" and "Accumulated Number of Incident Counties of Epidemics in 10 Years" were set up to analyze the temporal distribution of epidemics in China. The results show that the epidemics were more and more frequent from the early Ming to late Qing Dynasty. After 1840 A.D., they happened nearly every year. 1580~1589A.D., 1639~1648 A.D., 1813~1822 A.D. and 1857~1866 A.D. were the four peaks of frequency and scale of epidemics. (2) The indicators of "Percentage of Incident Years of Epidemics to Total Years" and "Percentage of Counties of Epidemics to the Total Counties" were set up to analyze the spatial distribution of epidemics. The results show that many areas were affected by epidemics in the whole Ming and Qing dynasties. But the incidental frequency verified largely in different areas. The high frequency and the high incident areas descended from the east coastal area to the inland area. The middle and lower reaches of Yellow River and Yangtze River were the regions with the highest frequency. The epidemics occurred in all the eastern and central provinces. Over 80% of the counties in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan, Fujian, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong and Zhejiang were affected by epidemics. (3) The indicator of "Proportion of Accumulated Incident Counties of Epidemics to the Total Counties &; Years" was set up to quantitatively analyze both the occurrence frequency and the affected regional scales. The results show that Shanghai, Zhejiang and Shandong were the highest with "Proportion of Accumulated Incident Counties of Epidemics to the Total Counties &; Years", indicating that occurrences in these provinces were both high frequency and large scales. Further studies should be done on their relations with droughts and floods, socioeconomic development and the distribution of population.