灰色预测系统在唐山地震前兆数据处理中的应用

本文应用灰色预测系统GM(1,1)模型,对宝坻等四个台唐山地震前地电、水化、水位、形变等手段的月均值资料进行了处理。结果表明:宝坻地电、管庄水氡、宁河俵口水位及牛口峪定点水准都出现了不同程度的震前异常变化,从而证明了灰色预测系统在地震前兆数据的处理中有着一定的应用价值。

APPLICATION OF GREY PREDICTION SYSTEM IN PROCESSING THE PRECURSORY DATA OF TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE

Through the application of grey prediction model CM(1,1) , the monthly mean value of geoelectrisity, chemical components of ground water, ground water table, and crust deformation data observed at four stations before Tangshan earthquake are processed in this paper. The result shows that the abnormal changes of the geoelectrisity at Baodi station, the radon at Guanzhuang, groundwater table at Ninghe, and fixed point leveling at Niukouyu station appeared in different degrees. This indicates that the grey prediction system has certain practical value in processing seismic precursory data.