基于GIS新冠智能体仿真模型及应用——以广州市为例

2019年12月湖北省武汉市出现了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情。新型冠状病毒传播力强,导致全国甚至全世界范围都出现新型冠状病毒疫情。为了刻画新型冠状病毒在城市内部的传播方式,本文基于个体在城市中的行为和社会关系,融合了复杂网络理论和GIS技术构建了新型冠状病毒智能体仿真模型。该模型以广州市为研究对象,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法拟合参数,实现了对广州市疫情的准确回顾。结果表明,模型精度良好,其中MAPE为0.17。智能体模型具有良好的适用性。因此可以模拟境外输入病例对城市疫情发展的影响。智能体模型标记了个体的时空位置和社会关系,因此本文还提出一种通过智能体模型进行流行病学调查的方式,该方式相较于传统流行病调查更加便捷,效率更高。然后根据模拟分析结果,为城市防控疫情提供有价值的决策信息。最后建议市民,如果城市再次暴发疫情,不必恐慌,疫情会在14~20 d被控制,但是要提高自我防护意识,做好自我保护。

The City Agent Model of COVID-19 based on GIS and Application:A Case Study of Guangzhou

Since December 2019, a new type of coronavirus pneumonia has occurred in Wuhan, Hubei. The strong spread ability of the new coronavirus has led to the rapidly emergence of new coronaviruses throughout the country and even all over the world. In order to portray the spread line of the new coronavirus within the city and then provide reasonable suggestions for the prevention and control of the urban epidemic, this article constructs a new coronavirus intelligent simulation model by combining complex network theory and GIS technology based on the behavior and social relationships of individuals in the city. Considering to the facts that it is necessary to strictly prevent the import of overseas cases to prevent the local epidemic from rebounding in cities with complex composition of population. This agent model takes the first entry point for overseas entry,Guangzhou city, as the research object to review the development of the epidemic. The attributes and rules of the model was determined by collecting statistical data from the literatures. Then the parameters were fitted by the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to achieve an accurate review of the epidemic situation in Guangzhou. The model is of high accuracy whose MAPE value have achieved 0.17. Meanwhile, this model also has good applicability which can simulate the impact of imported cases from abroad on the development of urban epidemics. Since the agent model marks the individual’s time and space location and social relationship, this paper proposes a method for epidemiological investigation through the agent model, which is more convenient and more efficient than traditional epidemiological investigations.This article also visually displays the results of the infection chain, which is convenient for analyzing the activity trajectory of virus carriers and close contacts.This model provides valuable decision-making information for urban epidemic prevention and control.Moreover, the simulation results show that if there is another epidemic outbreak in the city, the epidemic will be controlled within 14-20 days so the citizens don’t need to be panic. However, it is still necessary to improve selfprotection awareness and protect individuals finely, especially the children and the elderly. When the epidemic comes again, it is recommended that schools and enterprises should establish a joint health monitoring mechanism to strengthen the health monitoring of children and employees, respectively. Relevant governmental departments have to strengthened the spread of epidemic prevention knowledge and persuaded retired people to reduce gatherings and wear masks reasonably.