大气CO2浓度非均匀分布及其对地表升温影响的研究进展与展望

在气候变化和全球治理挑战日益严峻的背景下,CO₂排放及代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注。当前全球范围包括联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）评估在内的几乎所有研究都是基于全球平均CO₂浓度来驱动气候模式的,但基于全球CO₂平均分布设定开展模拟影响评估在学术界多有争议。首先,综述了大气CO₂非均匀分布的证据,评述了大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布与地表升温过程的互馈机制。其次,从自然和人为2个维度,梳理了大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布形成的原因,并评估了其对地表升温的影响。最后,评述了当前大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布研究中存在的问题,进一步展望了其发展趋势,为把握全球与区域碳排放现状及气候变化影响提供科学判据。

Research Progress and Prospect on the Non-Uniform Distribution of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and its Influence on Surface Warming

Global climate change is not only the most important environmental problem, but also one of the most complex challenges mankind faces in the 21^st century. In the context of the increasing challenges of climate change and global governance, the assessment of CO₂ emissions and costs has attracted increasing attention from academia and policy makers. At present, almost all global studies, including the assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), use global average CO₂ concentration to drive the climate models. However, there are many controversies on the impact assessment based on the global average distribution of CO₂ in academia. To formulate countermeasures to deal with carbon emissions and reduction and enhance China’s international discourse on dealing with climate change, it is of great importance to explore the mutual feedback mechanism between the inhomogeneity of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and geophysical processes (e.g. surface temperature rise), and explore the impact mechanism of the inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on global climate change. This paper reviews the research progress of non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and its effects on surface warming. Firstly, this paper reviews the evidence of non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration from three aspects, ground-based measurement, numerical simulation, and remote sensing. It summarizes the advantages of these three methods and analyzes the discovery process of non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Secondly, this paper explores the mutual feedback between the non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface temperature rise. The non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration directly affects the radiative forcing or indirectly affects the regional warming through affecting the photosynthesis. Regional warming has a direct or indirect impact on the ability of the ocean and vegetation to absorb CO₂, which ultimately affects the non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Finally, this paper reviews the problems of existing studies on non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ and discusses the prospect of future development trends. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the current situation of global/regional carbon emissions and climate change impacts, and further explores the feedback mechanism among atmospheric CO₂ non-uniform distribution, surface temperature rise, and socio-economic system.