广东新会市人口,耕地,粮食问题及灰色模型预测

在我国改革开放政策实行较早的广东珠江三角洲地区，我们对地处西南部的新会市进行了为期两年的全面、典型抽样调查。发现全市的耕地面积和播种面积呈下降趋势，单产虽有较大幅度的增长但粮食总产量的增长缓慢，速度低于全市总人口的自然增长率，因此人均粮食产量呈下降趋势。根据建立的灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测，新会市２０１０年人均耕地面积只有０．０２５ｈｍ＾２，在“人均４分保命田”之下。因此，本文对该地区作出的粮食及

PROBLEMS OF POPULATION, CULTIVATED AREA GRAIN GYIELD IN XINHUI MUNICIPALITY, GUANGDONG PROVINCE

inhui Municipality is situated at the southwest of the Pearl River Delta. For studying the ecological-economic problems the all-round investigation, case investigation and random sampling in the municipality have been made for two years. It is found that the cultivated area and seeded area have shown a tendency to decrease. Per hectare yield increased by a big margin, but the total grain output increased by a small margin. The growth rate of grain is slower than the natural increase rate of population, then the per capita grain output has shown a tendency to decrease.Three Grey Models GM (1, 1)] are set up to predict the future tendency. It is estimated that the cultivated area and grain yield will further decrease. Per capita cultivated land will be only 0. 0252. hectare in A. D. 2010, even under the lowest lint for people's living need.