| 一非线性统计－动力气候模式及其降水预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑建萌,曹杰,李敏,王宇.一非线性统计－动力气候模式及其降水预报试验[J].高原气象,1996(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑建萌 曹杰 李敏 王宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省红河州气象局，云南大学地球科学系，云南省气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | “云南省灾害性天气预测预报研究”课题阶段成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 在带有线性反馈的统计－动力气候模式的基础上，提出了一种非线性统计－动力气候模式。该模式的实质是用逐段线性化的统计－动力气候模式来描述气候系统的总体非线性变化特征。试验结果表明，该模式能更客观地预测气候变化
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| 关 键 词： | 统计－动力气候模式 非线性变化 阈值 反馈因子 |
A NONLINEAR STATISTICAL-DYNAMIC CLIMATE MODEL AND ITS FEASIBILITY EXPERIMENT OF PRECIPITATION PREDICTION |
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| ZHENG Jianmeng,CAO Jie,LI Min,WANG Yu.A NONLINEAR STATISTICAL-DYNAMIC CLIMATE MODEL AND ITS FEASIBILITY EXPERIMENT OF PRECIPITATION PREDICTION[J].Plateau Meteorology,1996(3). |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Jianmeng CAO Jie LI Min WANG Yu |
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| Institution: | ZHENG Jianmeng 1 CAO Jie 2 LI Min 3 WANG Yu 3 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,basing on a statistical-dynamic climate model with the linear feedback,we proposed one kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic climate model and make use of the nonlinear statistical-dynamic model, rainfall prediction is tested in Mengzi during the rainy season. The phase linear method in the kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic model is considered to describe the nonlinear character of climate. The forecast experiment results show that the kind of nonlinear statistical-dynamic model can accurately predict climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Statistical-dynamic model Nonlinear variation Threshold Feed-back factor |
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