一种分析台风路径预报误差的新方法

台风路径预报误差应包括距离误差和方向误差两个方面,而在以往的业务应用和科学研究中偏向于只考虑对应时刻预报和观测位置点间的距离误差。本文对评估台风路径误差的方法进行了改进,在距离误差基础上建立了一种新的表征台风路径误差的方法——多因子误差法。本文以中国气象局整编的热带气旋最佳路径数据为标准,对2008和2009年中国气象局、美国台风联合预警中心和日本气象厅预报的西北太平洋热带气旋路径,采用新的表征热带气旋路径预报误差的多因子误差法进行分析,并与普遍采用的距离误差法进行对比,结果表明:多因子误差分析方法和距离误差分析方法存在比较明显的差异,多因子误差法优势比较明显。本文是对更科学的台风路径预报误差评定方法的有益探索,有一定的参考价值。

A new method for analyzing track forecast error of typhoon

Typhoon track forecast error should include distance error and direction error, but in previous operational application and scientific research in favor only consider the distance error between observation position and forecast position of the corresponding time. In this paper the method of assessing the typhoon track error was improved. A new method of characterization of typhoon track error multiple-factor error method is established based on the distance error. The tropical cyclone（TC) best track data which compiled by Chinese Meteorological Administration（CMA) were as the standard, the TC tracks in the western North Pacific forecasted by CMA, U S Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency in 2008 and 2009, were analyzed by using the new multiple-factor method that attributes TC track forecast error, and with the distance error method which uses generally was compared. The results show that the quite obvious difference exists between the multiple-factor error analysis method and distance error analysis method. The multiple-factor error method superiority is quite obvious. It is an useful exploration to the more scientific assessment method for typhoon track forecast error. It has a certain practice application value.