2020年1月19日新疆伽师MS6.4地震前乌恰钻孔倾斜异常特征及可靠性分析

利用形态分析法和速率分析法,研究2020年1月19日新疆伽师M S6.4地震前乌恰钻孔倾斜的异常特征,并利用潮汐分析和R值评分方法对其异常可靠性、预报效能进行分析。结果表明:伽师地震前乌恰钻孔倾斜出现加速E倾变化,异常持续天数为196天,异常幅度达到4.54″,与之前异常变化相比,持续时间长,异常幅度大。综合现场异常核实和潮汐因子计算结果认为:伽师地震前乌恰钻孔倾斜的E倾加速异常真实可靠。

ANOMALY CHARACTERISTICS AND RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF BOREHOLE INCLINATION IN WUQIA BEFORE XINJIANG JIASHI M S6.4 EARTHQUAKE ON JANUARY 19TH,2019

Using morphological analysis method and velocity analysis method to study the anomaly characteristics of borehole inclination in Wuqia before Jiashi M S6.4 earthquake on January 19th,2020,we predict the anomaly reliability and efficiency by the tide analysis and R value scoring methods.The results showed that the eastward speedily change occurred in borehole inclination in Wuqia before the Jiashi earthquake.The duration of the anomaly was 196 days,and the magnitude of the anomaly reached 4.54″.Compared with the previous anomaly,the duration was longer and the magnitude of the anomaly was greater.Combining field anomaly verification with the factor calculation results,it believed that the eastward acceleration anomaly of borehole inclination in Wuqia before the Jiashi earthquake was true and reliable.