中国城镇化对经济发展的作用机制

近年来,认为城镇化是中国未来经济增长重要动力源的学者越来越多。这种看法对传统“城镇化源自产业化”的理论形成了挑战。本文在相关研究的基础上,采用社会经济统计数据和多种分析模型,定量分析了1978-2008年中国城镇化与经济发展二者之间的关系以及城镇化对经济增长的影响机制。研究表明:改革开放以来,我国城镇化更多是经济发展的一种结果和现象,城镇化本身作为经济发展的直接动力源特征并不明显。但通过城镇化确实可以使经济增长的相关要素得到很好的集聚,从而对经济发展产生良好的传导效果。中国城镇化主要通过物质资本、人力资本的集聚推动经济发展,对知识资本、现代服务业等高端生产要素的集聚作用还不强。因此,讨论21世纪中国城镇化问题要从其要素集聚功能上下功夫,即是城镇对高端要素的集聚化而非传统意义上的摊大饼和简单数量扩张。

Research on the mechanism of urbanization to economic increase in China

In recent years,more and more scholars considered that in the future urbanization it will be the important driving force to promote economic increase in China,which challenges the traditional theory that urbanization derived from industrialization.Based on the previous research,the paper quantitatively analyses the relationship between urbanization and economic development and the mechanism of urbanization to economic increase in China by using analytical models and statistical data.Results show that:from 1978 to 2008,China's urbanization presents logarithm relevant to economic increase and both has a long dynamic equilibrium relationship;the direct facilitating effect of urbanization on economic development is not obvious,urbanization is more as a result and a phenomenon of economic development,but through the urbanization,the relavant factors especially the key factors such as physical capital,human capital,knowledge capital and industrial structure which can promote economic growth can be agglomerated well and thus produce a good spillover effect on economic increase.In 1978-2008,by giving an impetus to the agglomeration of physical capital and human capital,urbanization further power the development of the whole economy, but this spillover effect is still not desirable,the agglomeration action on higher production factors is limited.Therefore in the 21st century fostering the agglomeration function of urbanization should be paid more attention in China,and we should not simply go in traditional development such as simple quantitative expansion,but focus on the agglomeration function of a city to higher production factors.The development way of China's urbanization should be transformed from "seeking quantity and light" to "seeking quality and strong".