比例性偏离份额空间模型推演及应用

通过在模型分量结构中置换共享分量、嵌入区域分量和重组残差分量实现了区域分量和结构分量的初步分离,又通过增速标准化处理分别排除了产业结构和规模差异对区域分量和结构分量测算的影响,实现了偏离份额分析从区域考察期增量中分离出区域经济结构差异和规模差异对经济增长贡献的目标。新推演的结构分量真正实现了区域经济结构差异的横纵向比较,尤其是通过同时测算区域产业规模结构和增速结构差异揭示了区域规模和增速占优产业的集中分布情况。此外,为已有的20种分解结构分类补充了8种分解结构,并以环比式动态算法下的比例性偏离份额空间模型对安徽省各地级市2000-2010年经济增长进行了分析。

The derivation and application of the proportionality shift-share spatial model

Shift-share model (SSM) has been viewed as an effective statistical analysis method in the research of regional economic growth. However, what the classical model of shift-share analysis contains is not the exact regional component and structural component in the true sense, two components interweave with each other, and its extensive models produce more residual component without too much explanation for separating regional component and structural component. A complete separation between regional component and structural component in the shift-share analysis has been realized in this study. On the one hand, the proportionality shift-share spatial model realized a preliminary separation through transforming share component, embedding regional component, and reorganizing residual component in component structure. On the other hand, the proportionality shift-share spatial model excluded the impact of industry structure and scale differences for the computing of regional component and structural component through standardizing the growth rates. The new model realized shift-share analysis' goal to separate the contribution of the scale and structural differences of regional economy from the regional economic increment during the study period. The new derived structural component achieved an authentic longitudinal and transverse comparison of the regional structural differences. Especially, it revealed the concentrated distribution of industry whose scale and growth rates are dominated by calculating the structural differences of industrial scale and growth rate simultaneously which amounts to increment structure. In addition, 8 decompositions were added for the existing 20 decomposition of taxonomy, and the regional economic growth of all the cities in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2010 was analyzed by the proportionality shift-share spatial model with annulus comparative dynamic algorithm. Regional economic growth depends on the economic performance of neighborhood and nation to a certain extent. The proportionality shift-share spatial model embedded spatial structure by setting the neighborhood and weighting interregional actions, which revealed the scale and structure advantage of regional economy. The growth rate, the industrial structure, and spatial weight of each stage are different in the dynamic process of regional economic growth. The effect changes of each region throughout the years can be examined by dynamic algorithm.