道路交通节能减排途径与潜力分析

交通运输行业是仅次于制造业的第二大油品消耗行业,也是实现低碳生活发展路径的重点行业。基于交通运输部门碳排放量现状分析,本文提出了优先发展公共交通、鼓励发展小排量汽车、降低机动车单耗、控制排放物标准等四种挖潜减排途径,并利用排放量估算和情景分析相结合的方法,对我国道路交通减排潜力进行了预测。按照高中低度三种减排情景发展,测算出2015年及2020年减排量,为实现至2020年我国碳排放较2005年下降40%~45%的目标提供科学基础。研究认为:2010-2020年是中国交通运输行业高速发展阶段,要满足能源安全和温室气体减排要求,我国需要实施更严格的产业和环境政策,若强化低碳情景模式,则2015年、2020年的碳排减少量分别约为2183万t、7148万t,达到我国道路交通部门的最大减排潜力。

Emissions reduction potential analysis of road transportation

At the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, China announced its target of CO₂ emission reduction, that is, by 2020 the amount of CO₂ emission per output unit will drop by 40%~45% compared to that in 2005. The target will be incorporated into China's long term socio-economic planning. Globally, the transport sector is the largest source of CO₂ emissions. Exploring road transportation energy consumption and the abatement opportunities for road transportation is of great significance for low-carbon economy research, and also for the emission reduction target. Based on the existing literature and research, in this article, we outline four major potential ways of emissions reduction on road transportation, which are: (1) give priority to the development of public transportation; (2) give priority to the development of small output volume automobiles; (3) reduce the automobile energy consumption per kilometer; (4) strictly control the automobile pollutant emission standard. With these four potential ways, the article uses the emission calculation model and scenario analysis method to estimate the reduction potential of road transportation carbon emission in 2015 and 2020. Calculation results show that: under low, middle and high scenarios, China will reduce the CO₂ emission by 21.83, 18.91 and 18.81 million tons in 2015 respectively. Up to 2020, the emission amount will achieve 71.48, 55.45, and 40.55 million tons respectively. Lastly, according to the development reality of China, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations in relation to emission reduction of road transportation on the basis of the above findings.