| 北疆寒潮天气分析及预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俊兰,牟欢,谢葭颖.北疆寒潮天气分析及预报[J].新疆气象,2015,9(5):11-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俊兰 牟欢 谢葭颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆维吾尔自治区气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐市达坂城区气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金;中国气象局项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1998-2014年20场北疆典型寒潮天气过程的高空、地面和数值预报产品资料,对北疆寒潮天气进行了环流分型和区域分型,总结了环流型与冷空气路径、区域类型的对应关系,重点统计了不同季节北疆寒潮爆发前一天内500hPa脊前北风急流、锋区强度、中低空冷空气强度、地面冷高压等特征量的平均值和最大、最小值,并检验欧洲ECMWF数值预报产品在北疆寒潮天气预报中的预报能力,为北疆寒潮精细化预报提供了技术参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 北疆寒潮 环流分型 区域分型 寒潮特征量 ECMWF检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/5/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/3/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Analysis and Forecast of Cold Wave in North Xinjiang |
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| Zhang Junlan,Mu Huan and Xie Jiaying.Analysis and Forecast of Cold Wave in North Xinjiang[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2015,9(5):11-18. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Junlan Mu Huan and Xie Jiaying |
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| Institution: | Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Dabancheng Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang |
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| Abstract: | Base on observation and forecast data of 20 typical cold wave in north Xinjiang during 1998-2014,cold wave were classified according to the circulation and the area,the relation of the circulation to the cold air path,and to the region was summarized.Key statistics of 500hPa northwest jet in north Xinjiang in different seasons,before the day that cold wave outbreak,front intensity,middle and low level cold air intensity,and high pressure characteristics such as average and maximum,minimum on the surface,after that verify the ability that ECMWF forecast the cold wave for north Xinjiang.At last,provide the technical reference of cold wave forecast in north Xinjiang. |
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| Keywords: | Cold wave in north Xinjiang Cold wave characteristics ECWMF forecast product inspection |
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