山东省可持续发展指标体系初步研究*

山东省作为我国沿海地区经济发展较快的省区之一,无论从自然条件、经济发展的区域差异,还是从当前发展中所面临的人口、资源及环境问题,在全国均具有较强的代表性与典型性,可作为研究中国可持续发展的一个“缩影”.本文探讨了建立可持续发展指标体系的基本原则、山东省实施跨世纪可持续发展战略的主要思路,在此基础上提出了指标体系的基本框架及实际应用。

THE RESEARCH ABOUT AN INDICATOR SYSTEM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

Shandong is one of the fast developing provinces in the coastal area,and it also is a typical representative in the aspects of natural conditions, regional disparities and impending problems such as population, resources and environment.In the paper, the basic principles to establish an indicator system of sustainable development were studied (scientific principle, practicable or operatable principle, estative principle, perfective principle and dynamic principle).Based on the analysis of the provincial characteristics of Shandong, the strategic thinking for sustainable development was brought out.① Sustainable and fast development should be stressed.② Coordination and soundness in social system should be guaranteed.③ Special considerations should be given to rational resources exploration, ecological environment protection and management.④ Sustainability should be emphsized.The indicator system of sustainable development in Shandong province consists of 3 estates, 4 kinks, 15 groups and 90 indicators, in which, the economic growth kind divides total amount, intensivity and effectivity as 4 groups, 18 indicators; the social progress kind makes population index,living quality, social stability and social ensurance as 4 groups 30 indicators; the sustainance of resources and enviroment contains resources index, pollution index, environmental harness index and ecological index as 4 groups 26 indicators; the sustainability kind includes economic ability, intelletual capacity, environmental resources capability and mangement ability as 4 groups 16 indicators.After the analysis with the AHP method, the proportion of each kind and group was got as follows: economic growth,32 points; social progress, 28 Points; resources and environmental sustainance, 22 points; sustainability,18 points.Finally a comprehensive index was sumed up with their proportions, it was used as an assessment for Shandong's development.According to the assessment,the superhigh economic growth in the past 16 years was a result of large investment,large amount consumption of labour and resources with a result of lower economic benefits and a damage to ecological system and environment, so it could not accommodate the need of sustainable strategy.In the coming 15 years,its sustainable developmental target should coordinate society,population, resource use and environmental protection.That is,the economy should increase appropriately; living conditions should be improved 1 population increase should be controlled effectively;resources .exploration should be reasonable and ecological environment should have a recycling development.