西北干旱区新疆水资源足迹及利用效率动态评估

 水资源足迹是如实反映人类对水资源消费利用的新概念,能深刻揭示社会经济系统对水资源的消费,为干旱缺水地区水资源科学管理提供了一个新视角。以地处西北干旱区的新疆为例,运用水资源足迹概念对1990—2005年新疆水资源足迹进行综合评价,然后采用动态计量的分析方法对水资源利用效率与水资源足迹、城乡消费结构之间的长期关系进行了分析。结果表明:新疆全社会水资源足迹总量从1990年的115.55亿m3增加到2005年的159.57亿m3,增幅38.1%,总体上呈现上升趋势。水足迹强度由1990年的0.42 m3\5元-1下降到2005年的0.06 m3\5元-1,降幅85.5%,说明水资源利用效率有了明显提高。城乡居民的消费水平、消费数量和消费结构发生了较大的变化。水资源利用效率不高与水资源足迹、城乡消费结构之间呈现一种长期稳定的趋势,需要及时采取应对策略与措施加以调控。

Dynamic Analysis of Water Footprint and Resources Utility Efficiency of Xinjiang in Northwest China Arid Areas

Water footprint is a new concept reflecting people’s real consumption and usage of water resources. It profoundly posts the real water consumption of social economic system and offers a new viewpoint for water resource management. In this paper, the concept of water footprint is put forward, together with its calculation methodologies. Taking Xinjiang Province in northwest China arid areas as an example the authors investigate the variation of water footprint from 1990 to 2005; then using ADF unit root test and cointegration analysis methods of dynamics econometrics to analyze the relation of water resources utility efficiency with water footprint and consumption pattern. The results indicate that gross water footprint has increased from 115.55×108 m3 to 159.57×108 m3 from 1990 to 2005, which showed a ascending tendency; the intensity of water footprint has decreased from 0.42 m3 per Yuan to 0.06 m3 per Yuan under countrywide average level, which showed that water resources utility efficiency has obvious elevation. Generally, the consumption level, quantity, patterns of urban and country citizens have obviously changed. The relationships between low efficiency of water resource utilization and water footprint, consumption pattern have a long-run and stationary tendency, which need timely rational control by adopting corresponding strategy and countermeasure.