Projecting land-use change processes in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca, Mexico |
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Authors: | Leticia Gmez-Mendoza Ernesto Vega-Pea M Isabel Ramírez Jos Luis Palacio-Prieto Leopoldo Galicia |
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Institution: | aInstituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Circuito exterior, Ciudad Universitaria; A.P. 20-850, México, D.F. C.P. 04510, Mexico;bInstituto Nacional de Ecología, Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. Periférico Sur 5000. Col. Insurgentes-Cuicuilco. C.P. 04530. México, D.F., Mexico |
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Abstract: | The objective of study was to explore short-term trends of processes that determine land-use change in Sierra Norte of Oaxaca (SNO), Mexico. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) were estimated in a complex mosaic of vegetation in the SNO from 1980 to 2000, and projected them to 2020 through a Markovian model. SNO is highly vulnerable to climatic change according to a 2050 GCM scenario. However, 3% annual rate of tropical and temperate forest deforestation from agriculture and livestock encroachment, suggest the threat from land-use change is higher than that from climatic change for this study site. Productive land-use strategies are needed to reduce such high deforestation rates for tropical regions. Controlling deforestation would also reduce short-term effects of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the necessity to evaluate anthropogenic ecosystem changes, it is imperative to separate short-term influences such as deforestation, from long-term influences such as climatic change. |
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Keywords: | Land-use change Climate change Deforestation Markovian models Sierra Norte of Oaxaca Mexico |
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