盐岩储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及风险分析

盐岩是一种典型的流变性材料，其蠕变特性对建于其中的储库稳定性具有重要影响，储库可靠性具有明显时变特性。虽然在盐岩的蠕变力学特性及其变形特性方面，前人已做了大量的研究工作，但国内外在基于随机力学理论的盐岩储备库时变可靠度风险分析方面的研究尚不多见。以国内某盐岩地下储气库为例，建立了相应的可靠度计算功能函数，开展储气库运营期时变可靠度计算及储库风险分析研究。以储库的蠕变体积收缩率为风险控制指标，采用响应面法结合Monte-Carlo抽样，对储气库进行设计运营期内不同内压条件下蠕变随机力学计算，得出了储库可靠指标随时间的变化规律及风险发生水平，拟合出满足工程可靠度要求的体积收敛率限值与储气内压的关系式，并探讨了储气库可靠性对主要随机因素的敏感性，结论可为盐岩地下储气库的安全运行和后期维护提供理论依据

Time-variant reliability calculation and risk analysis for salt rock gas storage during operation time

As salt rock is a typical rheological material,creep property has a significant influence on stability of the underground storage,and the reliability has strong time-variant property.Although much work had been done on the mechanical property and deformation characteristic of salt rock,utilizing stochastic mechanical theory in time-variant reliability risk analysis of salt rock storage was scarcely published all over the world.The reliability function is established to calculate the time-variant reliability...