低纬地区台风摆动路径的研究

本文从动力学原理出发,对30°N以南的北半球西太平洋和南海地区摆动的台风路径进行了研究。结果表明,在旋转地球上台风环流的旋转作用既可影响台风路径摆动的周期,与环境气流相互作用又可改变台风的移向移速,高层辐散与低层辐合差值对台风路径摆动起着增幅作用。本文用台风移动方程对各种类型的实际台风摆动路径作拟合检验,并提出一种改进台风摆动路径预报精度的方法,效果较好。 

AN ANALYSIS OF VACILLATING TYPHOON TRACKS IN LOW LATITUDES

In this paper, vacillating typhoon tracks in the west Pacific and the South China Sea south of 30°N in Northern Hemisphere are studied based on the principle of dynamics. The results show that in a rotating coordinate system the typhoon circulation rotation affects the vacillating period of the tracks and together with the interaction between the circulation and environmental flow changes the velocity and direction of typhoon movement, with the difference between upper divergence and low-level convergence increasing the track amplitude. Using a predictive equation for the movement, fitting tests are made for various real vacillating tracks and the results are reaso-nably good. In addition, a predictive method for improving to some extent the accuracy of the vacillating track forecast is presented.