关于气候变化对社会经济系统影响的机理和途径的探讨

本文基于考虑气候变化影响应与经济系统的特征时空尺度相匹配的观点,讨论了气候变化对经济系统影响的途径.认为:气候变化是年代际尺度的气温变化,直接影响的是冰冻圈、海平面、水资源、陆面状况、生态系统、微生物、人体健康等七个领域;觉察不到日变化、季节变化、年际变化而呈现出年代际变化的事物才是受全球变暖影响的事物;由于时间尺度不匹配,经济系统几乎不会受气候变化的直接影响;就间接影响而言,全球变暖导致的极端气候事件加剧和人类为应对与适应气候变化的积极响应,对经济系统的影响要显著得多.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Socioeconomic System: A Mechanistic Analysis

This research is based on the opinion that the temporal and spatial scales of climate change and those of the impact on the economic system should match. Based on this idea, we discuss how climate change influences the economic system through different temporal and spatial scales. Climate warming has a significant impact on the system in terms of factors operating at inter-decadal scales, such as the cryosphere, sea level rise, water resources, land cover/ecosystems, microbiology and human health, but has almost no effect on the system in terms of factors that have diurnal, seasonal and interannual cycles, such as the economy. The economic system is not directly influenced by climate change because of the mismatch in their temporal scales. However, the indirect impacts of climate change, such as the increasing frequency of extreme events and human adaptation, have a much greater influence on the economic system.