咸海流域水文水资源演变与咸海生态危机出路分析

中亚的咸海问题已成为全球性的生态和社会问题，研究咸海流域水文水资源、经济社会发展演变与气候变化，对深入理解中亚地区咸海危机形成机理、未来发展趋势、探讨咸海生态危机出路具有重要意义，对类似区域跨界河流和我国西北干旱区水资源开发利用具有重要借鉴意义. 介绍了中亚五国咸海流域的水资源及其开发利用情况，重点分析了中亚五国咸海流域农业灌溉的发展演变、近80a来咸海流域气候变化趋势与主要河流水文演变情势及咸海水文特征演变. 结果表明，咸海生态危机完全是由人类自导并日益严重的水资源-生态-环境与社会危机，短期内难以遏制，长期来看也无法逆转. 结合咸海危机生态环境效应，讨论了3个跨流域调水方案拯救咸海的利弊与前景，探讨了立足于流域本身拯救咸海的综合治理措施. 最后，提出了咸海危机经验教训对我国内陆河水资源开发利用的若干启示.

Evolution of Hydrologic and Water Resources and Ecological Crisis in the Aral Sea Basin

The Aral Sea has become a global ecological and social issue.The studies of the hydrologic and water resources,economic and social evolution and climate change in the basin are significant for understanding in depth the formation mechanisms of the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia and its developing trend,and for searching a way to deal with the Aral Sea ecological crisis.These studies also have important reference meanings for developing and utilizing water resources in Northwest China and other similar cross-border rivers regions.In this paper,the water resources and their exploitation in the five Central Asian countries around the Aral Sea are introduced,focusing on the evolution of agricultural irrigation in the countries,together with the climate change trends and the evolution of the main river hydrologic situation in the basin in the late 80 years.The results show that the Aral Sea ecological crisis is entirely a human self-guided water-ecological-environmental and social crisis.In the short term it is difficult to contain.In the long term it is also can not be reversed.In combination with the environmental effect of the ecological crisis in the Aral Sea basin,the three schemes of inter-basin water transfer are further discussed.Comprehensive measures to save the Aral Sea established in the basin itself are proposed.