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| 基于非平稳时间序列分析的滑坡变形预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 缪海波,殷坤龙,柴波,李德营.基于非平稳时间序列分析的滑坡变形预测[J].地质科技情报,2009,28(4). |
| 作者姓名： | 缪海波 殷坤龙 柴波 李德营 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学,研究生院,武汉,430074 2. 中国地质大学,工程学院,武汉,430074 3. 中国地质大学,环境学院,武汉,430074 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家科技支撑计划 |
| 摘 要： | 滑坡的位移监测资料通常可用来预测滑坡的变形发展趋势,位移的发展反映了滑坡的变形过程.为了预测在现有条件持续情况下的滑坡变形趋势,将滑坡位移监测数据视为非平稳时间序列,应用时间序列分析方法,建立了滑坡变形趋势的预测模型.以三峡库区秭归县白水河滑坡为例,通过对变形预警区监测点位移实测时间序列的分析,取监测点ZG93和XD-04为代表,建立了时间序列预测模型,从第17个月开始向前做6步预测,分析预测曲线与实测曲线之间的关系,并计算预测误差,结果显示除个别数据点之外,预测误差均在±9%以内,曲线吻合较好,说明所建模型效果良好,从而为判断白水河滑坡未来的变形发展趋势提供了可靠的理论依据. |
| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 非平稳时间序列 监测数据 变形预测 |
Deformation Prediction of Landslide Based on theAnalysis of Non-stationary Time Series |
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| MIAO Hai-bo,YIN Kun-long,CHAI Bo,LI De-ying.Deformation Prediction of Landslide Based on theAnalysis of Non-stationary Time Series[J].Geological Science and Technology Information,2009,28(4). | |
| Authors: | MIAO Hai-bo YIN Kun-long CHAI Bo LI De-ying |
| Institution: | a.Graduate School;b.Faculty of Engineering;c.School of Environmental Studies;China University of Geosciences;Wuhan 430074;China |
| Abstract: | The displacement monitoring data is usually adopted as time series to predict the deformation of landslide,and displacement development can reflect the progress of lanslide process.The displacement monitoring data is considered as non-stationary time series,and so time series analysis is used to establish the model to predict the deformation trend of landslide.With Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example,the time series prediction model is established based on the analysis of practi... |
| Keywords: | landslide non-stationary time series monitoring data deformation prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |