碳中和愿景下森林碳汇评估方法和固碳潜力预估研究进展

碳中和愿景下,加强森林的固碳增汇功能是抵消和吸纳碳排放最经济和最有效的途径。精准评估森林碳汇和预估森林固碳潜力,有助于量化森林在应对气候变化和实现碳中和愿景中的贡献。然而,森林分布的广泛性、森林生态系统结构的复杂性以及评估数据的代表性不够和方法学的差异性,造成森林碳汇评估的结果普遍存在精度低、不确定性高的问题。在界定森林碳储量、碳汇和固碳潜力等基本概念后,从森林定义、评估时空尺度、碳库选择及其基本方法等方面阐述了森林碳汇评估的方法,分析各类方法的主要特征、主要问题、优势和不足; 基于面积和生长假设情景,回顾了森林固碳潜力预估方法,重点分析了近10 a中国森林固碳潜力研究成果,预估到2030年和2060年,中国森林植被的年固碳潜力分别可达1.69亿t/a和1.48亿t/a左右的水平。最后,探讨了森林碳汇评估方法和固碳潜力预估的未来发展趋势,为不同时空尺度下森林碳汇评估和固碳潜力预估提供参考。

Research advance of forest carbon sink assessment methods and carbon sequestration potential estimation under carbon neutral vision

Under the carbon neutral vision, strengthening the carbon sequestration function of forests is the most economical and effective way to offset and absorb carbon emissions. Accurate assessment of forest carbon sink and prediction of the forest carbon sequence potential can help to quantify the contribution of forests in tackling climate change and achieving carbon neutral vision. However, the lower accuracy and higher uncertainty always exist in the forest carbon sequestration assessment, because of the universality of forest distribution, the complexity of forest ecosystem structure, the under representation of survey data and the difference of methodology. After defining the basic concepts of forest carbon storage, carbon sink and carbon sequestration potential, the forest carbon sequestration assessment methods have been introduced from the perspectives of forest definition, spatial and temporal scale, carbon pool selection and its basic methods. Besides, the main characteristics, problems, advantages and disadvantages of various methods were also analyzed. The forest carbon sequestration potential methods have been reviewed based on the area and growth scenarios. The research results about the forest carbon sequestration potential in recent 10 years have been analyzed emphatically, and the annual carbon sequestration potential of China’s forest vegetation will reach about 169 million tons and 148 million tons in 2030 and 2060, respectively. Finally, the future development trend of forest carbon sink assessment methods and carbon sequestration potential prediction was discussed, and it may provide some reference for forest carbon sink assessment and carbon sequestration potential prediction under different spatial and temporal scales.