岩体稳定性评价的模糊概率方法

岩体稳定性受多种不确定性因素的影响，不仅具有随机性，也具有模糊性，属于模糊概率的范畴，利用经典的模糊综合评判方法进行研究将会导致不合理的结果。在模糊概率理论的基础上，建立了一类新的岩体稳定性综合评价方法——模糊概率方法，并提出了模糊权重的概念，从而避免了权重取值带来的不确定性。结合所选取的5个影响岩体稳定性的因素，建立了这5个影响因素的隶属函数与模糊权重；利用该方法对某一地下岩体工程进行分析，并与其他方法评价的结果进行比较，表明了其方法的合理性与可靠性。

Fuzzy probability evaluation method and its application in assessment of rockmass stability

The stability of rock mass is affected by many undetermined factors having random and fuzzy behavior. And it belongs to the fuzzy probability category. To assess the stability of rock mass with classical fuzzy comprehensive assessment methods may lead to incorrect results. Based on the fuzzy probability theory, a new comprehensive assessment method for the stability of rock mass (Fuzzy Probability Evaluation Method) is presented in this paper. The fuzzy weighted values are established to avoid the uncertainties while determining the index weights. Five factors which affect the stability of rock masses are picked out. For each of them a subordinate function and fuzzy weighted value are established. An example of underground rock mass engineering is introduced at last. Stability grade of surrounding rock of the underground engineering is analyzed using the Fuzzy Probability Evaluation Method. The analysis process is introduced and the results are compared with other methods. It has been proved that the method of this paper is reliable and practical.