基于GIS技术的区域滑坡灾害危险性预测

基于GIS技术，利用信息量模型开展区域滑坡灾害危险性预测研究，编制滑坡灾害易发分区图，为滑坡灾害的风险预测及实时预警预报提供基础资料。以浙江省永嘉县为例，利用MAPGIS二次开发得到的信息量专业模块，结合永嘉县历史滑坡灾害和2004年以来新发生的灾害点，分别评价了研究区的历史滑坡灾害危险性和现状滑坡灾害危险性；提出用历史滑坡灾害危险性图件结合新发生的灾害点来验证评价模型；将历史灾害点和新灾害点结合生成滑坡灾害危险性预测图件的预测过程；研究成果经在永嘉县的实际验证分析，2004年后3次台风期间（2004年的“云娜” 台风，2005年的“海棠”和“麦莎”台风）发生的有准确地点的滑坡灾害点全部位于滑坡灾害易发区内，表明采用的模型具有较好的实用性和可靠性；采用历史统计和快速聚类相结合的方法进行危险性等级的划分，克服了前人研究工作中人为划分易发区的缺陷，更科学、客观。

Hazard forecasting of regional landslide hazards based on GIS

Based on GIS, hazard forecasting of regional landslide hazards is studied; and the hazard zonation map is obtained, which presents the basic information for risk prediction and real-time alarm of landslide hazards. On the platform of MAPGIS software, professional module of information model for landslide hazards spatial forecasting and evaluation is obtained through customized development. By using the module, history and present landslide hazard risk are assessed separately in Yongjia County of Zhejiang Province using the data of history hazards and new hazards happened in 2004 of the county. Therefore ,we can believe that the evaluation model can be tested by history hazard zonation map coupled with new hazards. And it is tested that the new landslide hazards with accurate locations happened during the 3 times of typhoon (Rananim, Haitang and Matsa ) period of 2004 and 2005, which indicates that the evaluation model has great practicality and availability. At the same time, zonation classes obtained by statistic method of history hazards coupled with the method of fast clustering analysis, which conquers the disadvantages in zonation, are more scientific and more objective.