未来接替能源——天然气水合物面临的挑战与前景

天然气水合物作为新型化石燃料展现出巨大的资源潜力,如何科学地估算全球天然气水合物资源量与安全而经济地开采天然气水合物是全世界关注的焦点。文章在系统地分析了全球气水合物研究4个发展阶段认识的基础上,结合笔者对中国南海天然气水合物近20年的研究经历,明确了中国南海天然气水合物赋存的构造背景复杂、沉积过程与类型多样、表征难度大等多种难题。指出了天然气水合物研究面临的6个地质问题与瓶颈:新近系层序地层划分的成因性对比、稳定带厚度与水合物赋存机理、陆缘水动力背景复杂且沉积类型多样、水合物分布与沉积响应间的关系、构造运动对水合物的聚散控制以及水合物成藏模式与判识评价体系;探讨了目前天然气水合物资源量估算过程中存在的优缺点以及试采仍需要攻关的关键理论与技术问题。从地质角度回答了油峰到来的预期与天然气水合物作为接替能源的可能性与前景,指出中国南海的地质特点与天然气水合物的分布规律,明确提出了天然气水合物研究既不可盲目性乐观、也不可强制性悲观的学术观点。

Future alternative energy: Challenges and prospects of natural gas hydrate

Natural gas hydrates have represented a huge resource potential as an alternative fossil fuel. It is the focus of the world that how to scientifically estimate,and safely and economically extract natural gas hydrates. Based on systematic analysis of the four development stages of global gas hydrate research and the author's research experience on natural gas hydrates in the South China Sea for nearly 20 years,multiple difficulties have been cleared including complicated tectonic and sedimentary setting,various depositional processes and types,and difficulty of characterization for the natural gas hydrates in the South China Sea. This paper points out six geological issues and bottlenecks faced by natural gas hydrate research in the South China Sea: Genetic correlation of the sequence divisions in the Neogene,thickness of the stable zone and the hydrate accumulation mechanism,hydrodynamic complex on the shelf margins and variable sedimentary systems,hydrate distribution and sedimentation response,controlling of structure movements to the gas hydrates,and hydrate accumulation model and identification evaluation system. Advantages and disadvantages of the current gas hydrate resource estimation process and the key theoretical and technical problems are also discussed in this study. From the geological points,possibility and prospect of the expected arrival of gas hydrate as an alternative energy source,as well as the geological characteristics of the South China Sea and the distribution law of natural gas hydrates have been answered. All above,this study clarifies that the natural gas hydration research is not unrealistically or mandatory pessimism.