中国人类福祉地区差距演变及其影响因素——基于人类发展指数(HDI)的分析

应用空间基尼系数、泰尔系数分解及面板模型等方法,对1995-2013年中国人类福祉地区差距及其影响因素进行分析,结果显示：①1995-2013年中国人类福祉省际差距整体趋于缩小。其中,“九五”时期不断缩小,“十五”时期波动变化,“十一五”时期快速缩小,“十二五”时期趋同发展;②四大区域之间的人类福祉差距是最主要的差距,但其贡献率总体呈递减趋势,而区域内人类福祉省际差距的贡献率呈递增趋势。西部地区人类福祉的省际差距最大但降幅明显,东部地区人类福祉的省际差距先扩大后降低,中部、东北地区人类福祉省际差距相对较小且不断缩小;③中国人类福祉地区差距和城乡收入差距同向扩大。加快经济发展、增加教育经费投入均可提高中国各省的人类福祉水平,但也可能扩大地区差距。提高卫生经费占比的增长率可降低中国人类福祉水平,但却能有效缩小中国地区之间的福祉差距。提高人均社会保障支出和人均转移支付,既能提高中国各省区的人类福祉水平,又可起到促进地区之间福祉均衡作用。

Regional difference and determinants of human well-being in China: Based on the analysis of human development index

The problem of regional unbalanced development emerges while human well-being is improving. Using the Gini coefficient, Theil index, and regression analysis method, this study analyzed the regional difference in change and determinants of human well-being in China from 1995 to 2013. It revealed that: (1) The inter-provincial difference of human well-being shows a converging trend and is getting smaller in China from 1995 to 2013. In the 9th Five Year Plan period it kept narrowing and in the 10th Five Year Plan period it showed some fluctuations. In the 11th Five Year Plan period it decreased rapidly and in the 12th Five Year Plan period it had a development trend of convergence; (2) From 1995 to 2013, the difference between the four regions is the main difference of human well-being in China, but its contribution rate shows a decreasing trend as a whole. The contribution rate of inter-provincial difference of human well-being is increasing in the four regions. The west region had the biggest inter-provincial difference of human well-being but has decreased significantly. The inter-provincial difference of human well-being enlarged at first and then narrowed in the east region. The central and the Northeast region showed smaller inter-provincial differences of human well-being and had a narrowing trend; (3) Increasing economic development and educational expenditure can improve the provincial human well-being but also will expand the difference of human well-being. The growth of the ratio of health care expenditure in finance will decrease the human well-being, but can narrow the difference of human well-being. Social security expenditure and transfers per capita are effective ways to improve provincial human well-being, but also narrow the difference of human well-being.