中国东部地区国内旅游消费与城镇化协调关系研究

国内旅游消费与城镇化发展关系密切,以中国东部地区10个省市为研究对象,通过构建国内旅游消费和城镇化评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、协整检验、TOPSIS评价法和协调度模型测度中国东部地区2000~2014年国内旅游消费与城镇化的综合水平和协调程度,并进行动态时空演化分析,最后根据K-Means聚类算法划分出4种发展类型。研究结果表明：中国东部地区国内旅游消费与城镇化存在长期均衡的协整关系;国内旅游消费与城镇化的协调程度不断提高,但地区差异明显;国内旅游消费与城镇化存在4种协调类型,即优良协调型（北京、天津）、城镇化滞后型（江苏、浙江、广东）、国内旅游消费滞后型（上海）、双滞后型（河北、山东、福建和海南）,并针对不同类型省市提出发展建议。

Coordination Relationship Between Domestic Tourism Consumption and Urbanization in the Eastern Region of China

At present, China is in the period of 'mass tourism' and 'new urbanization'. Tourism and urbanization are mutually reinforcing, and become 'new kinetic energy' to promote economic and social development. Domestic tourism consumption as the most intuitive expression of tourism economy, representing the level of domestic tourism development. To explore the interaction between domestic tourism consumption and urbanization, we can not only clarify the interaction mechanism between the two, but also promote the coordinated development of tourism and urbanization. Taking the ten provinces and cities in eastern China as the research object, this paper constructs the domestic tourism consumption and urbanization evaluation index system, and uses the entropy method, co-integration test, TOPSIS evaluation method and coordination degree model to measure the level and the degree of coordination between domestic tourism consumption and urbanization in the eastern region from 2000 to 2014. And the dynamic spatio-temporal evolution analysis is carried out, and four kinds of development types are divided according to the K-Means clustering method. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2014, the domestic tourism consumption and urbanization in the eastern region showed a trend of increasing year by year in general. 2) There is a long-term and balanced co-ordination relationship between domestic tourism consumption and urbanization in the eastern region. For each unit increase in urbanization, domestic tourism consumption will increase by 0.673 units. 3) The coordination between domestic tourism consumption and urbanization in the eastern region has risen by 3 levels in 15 years, and the overall trend has shifted from an imbalanced state to a coordinated one. There is obvious difference in the coordination level between provinces and cities, with high and low poles. 4) According to the K-Means clustering method, the types of coordination of domestic tourism consumption and urbanization in the eastern region are divided into four types: excellent coordination type (Beijing and Tianjin), urbanization lag type (Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong), domestic tourism consumption lag (Shanghai), double lag (Hebei, Shandong, Fujian and Hainan). There are significant differences among the four types of coordination types. The excellent coordination type should take the road of both domestic tourism consumption and urbanization; The urbanization lag type should focus on tourism as the driving force for urban development and promote the urban economy through the tourism economy; The domestic tourism consumption lag should take urbanization as the driving force and rely on the advantages of urbanization to promote the tourism industry to expand its scale, improve its functions, and enhance the supply and consumption capacity of tourism; The double lag need to first measure the comparative advantages of domestic tourism consumption and urbanization, select the dominant side as the driving force for egion development, in order to stimulate the other side of development.