海洋灾害对海洋经济增长影响研究——基于内生经济增长与拓展C-D函数

基于内生经济增长视角,将海洋灾害损失与海洋科技进步内生化,与海洋劳动力和资本要素一并作为海洋经济生产驱动因素,测度海洋灾害对海洋经济增长的影响。研究表明,海洋灾害对当年海洋经济增长有负向影响,对灾后第2年海洋经济增长具有拉动作用,且长期呈现负作用。究其原因,海洋灾害主要通过破坏海洋经济生产基础设施、设备以及渔业资源等生产资本影响当期海洋经济增长;通过更新海洋科技和海洋经济生产资本存量拉动灾后海洋经济增长;长期来看,海洋灾害对海洋经济生产要素破坏作用大于对要素的更新作用。

Effects of Marine Disaster on Marine Economy Growth Based on Endogenous Economic Growth Theory and Expanded C-D Function

The rising frequency of marine disasters in China has brought increasing losses, seriously threatened the safety of life and property of people in coastal areas and other areas and further aggravated the contradiction between the development of marine economy and the construction of marine ecological civilization. Marine disasters affected the development of marine economy, and marine economy growth may also be one of the reasons for the outbreak of marine disasters. Therefore, it is practically significant to discuss the issue of marine disasters and marine economy combined with disaster economics researches, propose marine disaster prevention and control measures, reduce the losses of marine disasters from the perspective of economics to enhance the ability of prevention and mitigation of marine disasters, promote the construction of marine ecological civilization and the realization of marine economy sustainable development. Based on the perspective of endogenous economy growth, the economic losses of marine disasters and marine technology progress were treated as endogenous driving factors, together with marine labor and capital factors, to measure the effect of marine disasters on marine economy growth. It could enrich the research literature of the marine disaster economy to a certain extent, and provide empirical evidence for the relationship between “marine disasters” and “marine economy growth”. Empirical study showed that marine disasters had negative effects on the growth of marine economy in the past year, had a pulling effect on the 2 a marine economic growth, and had a long-term negative effect. Investigating the reasons, marine disasters affected the current marine economy growth mainly through damaging the marine economic production infrastructure, equipment and marine fishery resources; post-disaster restoration and reconstruction work was the process of updating the marine economic production capital stock and the marine economic production technology, which stimulated the marine economic growth. In the long term, the damaging function of marine disasters to marine economy production elements was greater than the updating function. Therefore, recovering the marine economic production activities, increasing the marine economic production capital investment, developing industry related to marine disasters and improving the system of marine disaster insurances should be carried out quickly after a marine disaster. The marine disasters recovery and reconstruction demand, the introduction of relevant business investment, loosening monetary policy, increasing the loans of industry affected by marine disasters, and leading the post-disaster marine science and technology innovation should be started. In the long term, to formulate a comprehensive plan for disaster prevention and mitigation of marine disaster, raise the awareness of marine disasters prevention and mitigation in the whole society, pay attention to marine ecological environment protection and restoration, and effectively improve marine disasters prevention and mitigation capacity must be put on the agenda.