基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例

从空间自相关视角厘清经济发展水平较高和较低地区的空间组织关系演化规律对区域经济健康发展具有重要意义。在界定集极、孤极和外围等概念基础上,运用地统计分析方法,按两级三区和三级五区结构体系分别构建江苏省全局和局部经济空间极化结构,分析其演化过程,结果显示：①全局空间集极范围不断扩大,孤极数量减少,逐渐形成南集极北孤极、南极北外的空间结构,其间空间自相关作用逐渐增强,区位是极化动因;② 局部空间演化走势不尽相同：沿江和沿京杭运河地区经济空间极化结构逐渐升级,而沿东陇海和沿海地区却相对恶化。因此认为当前江苏省全局空间中南北显著分化和局部空间相背演化现象值得关注。

Evolution of Regional Economic Polarization Structure Based on Spatial Autocorrelation: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation, it is of great significance for the healthy development of the regional economy to clarify the evolution law of spatial organization relationship about high level areas and low level areas. In this article, the concepts of aggregated growth pole, isolated growth pole, the chief aggregated growth pole, the chief isolated growth pole, the subordinate aggregated growth pole, the subordinate isolated growth pole and periphery are defined, then the global and local spatial polarization structures about regional economy of Jiangsu Province are respectively constructed according to two levels and three zones structure system of “aggregated growth pole-isolated growth pole-periphery”. With the statistical analysis technique, three levels and five zones structure system of “chief aggregated growth pole, chief isolated growth pole, subordinate aggregated growth pole, subordinate isolated growth pole, periphery” is analyzed. On the basis of them, the evolution processes of regional economic spatial polarization structure in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The results show that: First, the global spatial structure of regional economy in Jiangsu Province is made up of three parts which include aggregated growth pole, isolated growth pole and periphery, and “aggregated growth pole in South , isolated growth pole in North” , and “growth pole in South and periphery in North” is forming gradually, among them, the range of aggregated growth pole is expanding , the number of isolated growth pole is reducing , the spatial autocorrelation function strengthen gradually, the trickle-down effect is enhanced. Second, the evolutions of local spatial polarization structures are not the same, the spatial polarization structures along the Yangtze Rive and the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal are gradually upgraded, while the spatial polarization structures along the east Longhai coast are relatively deteriorated: the polarization zones along the Yangtze Rive are enlarged, upgraded and gathered, the polarization zones along the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal are reduced but upgraded and gathered to the South , the polarization zones along the Coastline are downgraded and gathered to the South, the polarization zones along the Longhai east are reduced and downgraded. On the basis of them, the phenomenons of North-South differentiation and opposite evolutions in the global and local spatial polarization structure of regional economy in Jiangsu Province is worthy of attention now, at the same time, the varied development policies are necessary to guide the spatial structure optimization according to local conditions.