中国沿海地区生产性服务业发展态势及驱动因素分析

基于核密度估计、锡尔指数方法,对2005~2015年中国沿海地区生产性服务业发展现状进行分析,运用分位数回归方法探究驱动因素。研究表明：① 2005~2015年沿海地区生产性服务业发展水平持续上升,呈“双峰”分布态势。② 生产性服务业总体差异逐年增大,区域内差异是导致总体差异增大的决定性原因。③ 整体来看,各驱动因素能有效地促进沿海地区生产性服务业发展。国有化程度与生产性服务业呈正相关关系;技术水平对生产性服务业的推动作用远高于其它驱动因素;制造业水平、信息水平及政府作用对生产性服务业的拉动效应相对较弱;人力资本对生产性服务业的作用有待提高;基础设施不能满足生产性服务业发展的需求。

The Development Situation of Producer Service Industry and Its Driving Factors in the Coastal Areas of China

Studies on the development situation of producer service industry and its driving factors provide important theoretical and practical basis for the healthy development of producer services. Kernel density estimation and Theil index method were used to analyze the developmental stance of productive service industry in 11 coastal provinces and cities during the period of 2005-2015. And we used quantile regression method to explore influencing factors in the development of producer service industry. Our research showed that: 1) The producer service industry in China's coastal areas experienced a sustained growth from 2005 to 2015, showing a bimodal pattern. And the convergence trend at lower level slowed down. 2) The overall regional difference of producer service industry development was getting bigger and bigger year by year. The contribution rate of inner-regional differences is above 98%, which is the leading factor in the overall difference of productive services in coastal areas. The contribution rate of interregional differences is less than 2%, and the development of productive services between regions in the coastal areas is relatively balanced. 3) Overall, the drivers can effectively promote the productive services of the coastal areas. The nationalization and infrastructure symbols are contrary to the expected symbols, and the symbols for the other five drivers are consistent with expectations. In general, the significance level improved with the increase of the quantile, and the fitting effect of the model became better. The extent to which the industry is state-owned is directly correlated with the development of the producer service industry. Technology level played a far more important role than other factors in pushing the development of producer service industry. The pulling effect of manufacturing level, informatization and government function is comparatively weak. The role of human capital in the development of producer services needs to be improved. And infrastructure can not meet the needs of producer services development.