Rapid societal change as a proxy for regional environmental forcing: Evidence and explanations for Pacific island societies in the 14–15th centuries

Given the unquestioned impacts of recent/future environmental changes on human societies, it is reasonable to posit that past societal responses could be used as proxies of contemporaneous environmental forcing and might help identify the drivers of these, particularly where independent evidence of the effects of these events is inadequate. Such areas include Pacific oceanic islands for most of which there is evidence of a societal perturbation in the 14th and 15th centuries that saw the outbreak of region‐wide conflict, abandonment of coastal settlements and the abrupt end of long‐distance cross‐ocean voyaging networks. The contemporaneity of these effects across a vast region requires a driver that is external to particular island groups with the only possibility that of oceanic origin, most likely large waves (tsunamis or storm surges) or rapid sea‐level change. The explanation is less important than the principle that societal changes can be used as proxies for environmental activity.