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基于瑞典条分法数值解的边坡蒙特卡罗可靠性分析
引用本文:郭长宝,张永双,陈情来,李旭峰,王献礼.基于瑞典条分法数值解的边坡蒙特卡罗可靠性分析[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(4):18-21.
作者姓名:郭长宝  张永双  陈情来  李旭峰  王献礼
作者单位:1. 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京,100081;建设综合勘察研究设计院,北京,100007
2. 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所,北京,100081
3. 中国地质调查局水文地质工程地质技术方法研究所,保定,071051
基金项目:中国地质调查局地质调查项目
摘    要:本文基于瑞典条分法数值解的基本思想,建立了蒙特卡罗(Monte-Carlo)边坡可靠性分析计算模型,对云南省香格里拉县冷都复杂斜坡体前缘滑动体的稳定性进行了分析,计算结果表明该复杂斜坡体在目前状况下具有较高的稳定系数和可靠度,在降雨和地震作用下稳定性差,需要采取工程措施进行加固。

关 键 词:瑞典条分法  拟静力法  可靠性分析  冷都复杂斜坡体
文章编号:1000-3665(2007)04-0018-04
修稿时间:2006-08-032006-09-11

Monte-Carlo reliability analysis of landslide based on numerical solution of Sweden slice method
GUO Chang-bao,ZHANG Yong-shuang,CHEN Qing-lai,LI Xu-feng,WANG Xian-li.Monte-Carlo reliability analysis of landslide based on numerical solution of Sweden slice method[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2007,34(4):18-21.
Authors:GUO Chang-bao  ZHANG Yong-shuang  CHEN Qing-lai  LI Xu-feng  WANG Xian-li
Institution:1. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Belting 100081, 2. Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying, Beijing 100007, China; 3. Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Techniques, CGS , Baoding 071051, China ; China
Abstract:Based on numerical solution of Sweden slice method,the paper establishes Monte-Carlo reliability analysis calculation model,and then,analyses on the stability of the front slide part of Lengdu complex slope,which lies in Shangrila County,Yunnan Province.The calculation result shows that the complex slope body has higher stability and reliability,while the stability will be much lower at the condition of raining and earthquake,so it is required for engineering reinforcement.
Keywords:Sweden slice method  quasi-static method  reliability analysis  Lengdu complex slope
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