分期设计洪水标准计算方法研究

针对水库分期设计和调度运用所涉及的分期情况下如何定义水库防洪标准,以及如何在不突破水库防洪标准的前提下合理确定分期设计洪水标准等关键问题,本文基于概率论中独立事件的概率组合原理,提出了水库分期运用情况下的水库防洪标准的等价表达形式,并以一个水库作为分析案例,在确保水库分期运用情况下的等价防洪标准不突破水库防洪标准的前提下,分别确定了各个分期设计洪水标准以及相应的汛限水位。

A Method of Estimating Stage Design Floods during Flood Season

There are two issues resolving for the varied operational strategies in different stages during flood season for a reservoir.One is to guarantee constant to the standard for flood control of the reservoir,another is to estimate stage design floods of the reservoir during flood season.This paper proposed a method to estimate stage design floods during flood season and an equivalent formulation of the standard for flood control according to the probabilistic combinatorial principle.Based on the data of a reservoir,the design floods and lower limit levels for flood control of the reservoir in different stages during flood season are estimated by the proposed method provided that the equivalent standard for flood control is equal to the standard for flood control.The results of the case study showed that the method and the equivalent formulation could provide a good fit to estimating stage design floods during flood season.