基于GIS的深圳梧桐山林地增长预测与削减径流生态效益评估

基于2005年深圳市0.3 m分辨率的航片与梧桐山8个林地样方数据,通过ArcView软件平台,利用CITYgreen生态价值评估模型,计算2005年梧桐山林地削减径流的生态效益。并以2005年为初始年,以10年为周期,预测2015—2055年林地生长趋势与生态效益。结果表明:2015年、2025年、2035年、2045年与2055年梧桐山林地增长率分别为14.23%、12.27%、12.09%、11.68%、12.85%;2005年削减径流的生态效益为3.74亿元,2015年、2025年、2035年、2045年与2055年预测值分别为3.89亿元、4.03亿元、4.19亿元、4.35亿元与4.52亿元。林地生长与生态效益增长态势不均衡与不同树木的生命周期及其特性相关。

Forest Growth Prediction and Runoff Reduction Eco-efficiency Assessment of Wutong Mountain in Shenzhen City Based on GIS

The existence and variation of the vegetation pertaining to Wutong Mountain is of vital importance on the ecological system and urban planning construction of Shenzhen.Aerial photography imagery of 0.3 m resolution and the data of Wutong Mountain's eight forest quadrats of Shenzhen on 2005 were collected and analyzed with the use of ArcView software and CITYgreen model.On the basis of the renewed database,the eco-efficiency of reducing runoff pertaining to the Wutong Mountain forest was evaluated in this paper.Taking 2005 as the initial year and 10 years as a cycle,the growth tendency and ecological benefits of the forest from 2015 to 2055 were forecasted.The results showed that the growth rates of the Wutong Mountain forest are 14.23%,12.27%,12.09%,11.68%,12.85% in 2015,2025,2035,2045 and 2055 respectively.The eco-efficiency of the Wutong Mountain forest in reducing runoff is 374 million RMB in 2005,and the predicted eco-efficiencies are 389 million RMB,403 million RMB,419 million RMB,435 million RMB,452 million RMB in 2015,2025,2035,2045 and 2055 respectively,revealing apparent ecological benefits stemming from forest runoff reduction.The imbalance of the growth trend pertinent to forest growth and eco-efficiency is correlated with the lifecycle and integrative influences of different trees.