基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法研究

大多数地震破裂面源检测方法都是通过简化地震震源,将地震震源表示成线源或者点源,无法有效描述地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,不适用地震震级较大的情况下地震危险性检测。因此提出基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法,在地震震级较大时仍能检测出地震危险性概率。选取适宜的地震基岩水平峰值加速度衰减关系,分析地震震级、破裂长度、破裂宽度相互关系,确定地震引起的潜在地震破裂面源大小,计算给定地震动小于在场点处产生地震动的概率,将该概率同地震动加速度衰减关系结合,得到地震动年超越概率,分析地震危险性。经过实验检测发现,所提方法检测出的年超越概率与峰值加速度、最大震级有关,该概率能精准表示地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,说明该方法检测地震危险性是合理的。

Study on Detection Method of Potential Seismic Rupture Surface Source Based on Mathematical Modeling

Most of the seismic rupture surface source detection methods are based on simplifying the source of earthquake and expressing the source of earthquake as line source or point source.They can not effectively describe the occurrence and size of seismic rupture surface source in seismic zone,and are not suitable for seismic risk detection in the case of large earthquake magnitude.Therefore,a potential seismic rupture surface source detection method based on mathematical modeling is proposed,which can detect the seismic risk probability even when the earthquake magnitude is large.Selecting the appropriate attenuation relationship of horizontal peak acceleration of seismic bedrock,analyzing the relationship among earthquake magnitude,rupture length and rupture width,determining the size of potential rupture surface source caused by earthquake,calculating the probability that a given earthquake motion will generate ground motion less than the site point,combining the probability with the attenuation relationship of ground motion acceleration,the annual exceedance probability of ground motion is obtained,and the earthquake risk is analyzed.Risk.It is found that the annual exceedance probability detected by the proposed method is related to peak acceleration and maximum magnitude.The probability can accurately represent the occurrence and magnitude of seismic rupture surface source in seismic zone,which shows that the method is reasonable for detecting seismic risk.