天津市人口郊区化特征及其动力因素

基于"五普""六普"街道、乡镇数据,运用GIS及人口密度模型分析天津市人口郊区化的时空演变特征,并根据2005—2015年各区县数据,剖析其动力因素。结果表明:天津市中心区繁荣与郊区化并存,属于市中心发展型郊区化;天津已形成多中心格局,副中心人口聚集效应日益显著;人口郊区化伴随就业岗位的郊区化,但人口和产业存在空间分异现象;土地、住房制度改革及郊区经济发展加快了人口郊区化进程,公共服务的集中延缓了人口向郊区迁移,滨海新区发展、交通与通信网络的现代化为人口向郊区的迁移创造了条件。提出进一步推进城市组团式发展、推动产业结构与布局调整及以公共服务引导人口流动等措施实现中心城区人口向郊区有序分流。

Study on the Characteristics and Dynamic Factors of Population Suburbanization in Tianjin City

Based on the fifth and sixth census data,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the population suburbanization in Tianjin with GIS and population density model and according to the panel data of counties from 2005 to 2015,analyzed the influence factors of population suburbanization.The study showed that there is both central prosperity and suburbanization in Tianjin,called the type of a central district development.Tianjin has formed a multi center pattern,and the gathering effect of central population is increasingly significant.There is spatial differentiation between population and industrial elements.The reform of land and housing system and the improvement of rural economic development have accelerated the trend of population suburbanization,while the concentration of public services is counteractive.And the development of Binhai New Area and the modernization of traffic and communication network create conditions for the migration to the suburbs.Finally some proposals were put forward including further promoting the development of urban agglomeration and the adjustment of industrial structure and spatial layout,and guiding the flow of population by public service to achieve the orderly flow of population from central city to the suburbs.