山西省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应研究

以山西省旅游收入与地区生产总值等经济统计指标为基础,通过构建旅游业依存度、贡献率和拉动率3个指标,从时间和空间2个维度对山西省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应进行了测算。结果表明:从时间维度来看,2003—2014年山西省旅游业拉动效应逐渐增强,预测2020年旅游业依存度将达到79.5%;从空间维度来看,与周边省份相比,山西省旅游业拉动效应在2003—2014年间显著提高,并高于全国平均水平;以各市自身GDP为基数测算和分析,山西11个市旅游业拉动效应整体上势头强劲,但各市之间发展不均衡;以山西省全省GDP作为基数测算和分析,则各市旅游业拉动效应呈现出不同态势。

An Empirical Study on Tourism's Pulling Effects on Economy in Shanxi Province

Based on the tourism income and GDP in Shanxi Province form 2003 to 2014,this article studies the three targets of degree of dependence,contribution rate and drawing rate,and analyzes the tourism's pulling effect on economy from two dimensions of time and space. The results show that the total tourism's pulling effect on economy in Shanxi Province gradually increased in 2003—2014 from the point of time dimension,and it predicts that degree of dependence of tourism industry in Shanxi Province will reach 79.5% in 2020. From the point of spa-tial dimension,it is clear that the tourism's pulling effect on economy in Shanxi Province has improved significantly comparing with the surrounding provinces in 2003—2014,and has been higher than the value of national average in China. In the view of calculation based on the GDP of each city,it is at a strong momentum of the tourism's pulling effect on economy in Shanxi Province for all 11 cities,but the level of tourism's pulling effect on economy is not balanced between these cities. In the view of calculation based on GDP of Shanxi Province,the tourism's pulling effect on economy in Shanxi Province for 11 cities shows different situation obviously.