| Seismicity Factor A-Value and Its Application to Mid-Term Earthquake Prediction in North China |
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| 作者姓名： | Wang Wei Song Xianyue and Liu Zheng and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality Shanghai China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province Nanjing China |
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| 作者单位： | Wang Wei，Song Xianyue，and Liu Zheng，and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality，Shanghai 200062，China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province，Nanjing 210014，China |
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| 基金项目： | This project is sponsored by the CSB under the project No.95-04, China. |
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| 摘 要： | The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed.
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Seismicity Factor A-Value and Its Application to Mid-Term Earthquake Prediction in North China |
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| Wang Wei,Song Xianyue,and Liu Zheng,and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality,Shanghai ,China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing ,China.Seismicity Factor A-Value and Its Application to Mid-Term Earthquake Prediction in North China[J].Earthquake Research in China,1999(4). |
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| Authors: | Wang Wei Song Xianyue and Liu Zheng and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality Shanghai China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province Nanjing China |
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| Institution: | Wang Wei,Song Xianyue,and Liu Zheng,and Wang ZhengzhengSeismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality,Shanghai 200062,China Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210014,China |
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| Abstract: | The seismicity factor A-value is defined by synthesizing the seismicity precursors in time, space and magnitude in this paper. The seismicity data of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972 ~ 1996 in North China are used to perform spacial scanning of seismicity factor A-value. The result shows that there are obviously anomaly zones of A-value with better prediction effect in the mid-term of 2~3 years before most moderately strong earthquakes. Some problems regarding the mid-term prediction using A-value have been discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Seismicity factor A-value Seismic spacial concentrative degree C-value Seismic dangerous degree D-value Seismic magnitude factor Mf-value |
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